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By Ioanna Theou
According to the Iran Press and to Turkish media, there are Turkish military convoys that have entered northern Syria and are advancing toward the city of Manbij, using multiple routes through Afrin, Ras al Ain (Kobani) and northern Aleppo. The Syrian forces are also strengthening their capabilities, particularly in areas like Deir ez- Zor, where Kurdish groups are active. These actions show a broader militarization on all sides. Ankara has set a deadline for Syrian Kurdish groups (SDF) to join the Syrian Army. The Turkish authorities have already warned the Kurdish groups that if this deadline passes without compliance, a military offensive could be probably launched in northern Syria again in coordination of course with the Syrian government forces.
The increase of troop movements and deployments could prove that the Turkish state might prepare for intensified operations against Kurdish forces to exert control in northern Syria. Another point to mention is that a potential cooperation between the Turkish forces and the Syrian army would indicate that Ankara retains, to some extent, influence over the Damascus regime’s strategic choices, while advancing its own security objectives along the northern border.
The emergence of the new regime in Syria seems that provided Turkey with a strategic opportunity to negotiate its relations with Damascus. Ankara appears to be moving closer to the Syrian regime, not merely for diplomatic issues, but with a clear intent to shape Syrian policy decisions on matters central to Turkish security interests, particularly those involving the Kurdish populations in norther Syria. This rapprochement allows Erdogan to exert influence over al Sharaa’s regime approach to the Kurdish issue. Therefore, there is a unique opportunity for advancing Ankara’s regional goals while managing as well potential threats along its southern border.
The Institute for the Study of the War updated two months ago, a map that shows the Turkish military activity along Syria’s northern border.
This map illustrates a proposed ‘’security zone’’ inside northern Syria that Turkey wants. This zone covers areas that are mainly controlled by Kurdish fighters. The proposed zone includes areas from the borders southward toward certain cities/ regions. The map also shows positions where military movements have already taken or are proposed, which aligns with the Iran Press article mentioning the increase not only in military presence but also the potential intervention in northern Syria.
It is clear that the previous Turkish military operations in northern Syria (Operation Euphrates Shield, Operation Olive Branch and Operation Peace Spring) were only the beginning for Turkey’s assertive foreign policy in northern Syria, particularly towards the Kurdish militia groups. Turkeys is unlike to stop its operations until it achieves the complete neutralization of Kurdish armed groups, which despite sustained military pressure continue to retain significant operational capabilities and independence from the Syrian regime.
It is important to mention, that the nationalist sentiment constitutes a pivotal role for the Turkish state’s ideological foundations and the political identity of President Erdogan’s support base. The previous electoral contests were in favor of President Erdogan, because he managed to secure his political dominance through his alliance with the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), a party that has adopted a strict stance on the Kurdish issue and rejects any form of recognition of Turkey’s Kurdish minority.
Within this context, Turkey’s military operations perceived as ‘’victories’’ in northern Syria functioned as a mechanism of domestic political legitimation. These operations enabled Erdogan to reinforce a narrative centered on national strength, sovereignty, and security, and therefore Erdogan does not hesitate to emphasize the Turkish nationalist role in the region. In doing so, he sought to consolidate support among conservative and nationalist circles.
Bibliography
https://www.iris-france.org/en/turquie-syrie-breve-anatomie-dune-relation-compliquee/
https://understandingwar.org/map/proposed-turkish-operational-zone-in-syria/
https://iranpress.com/content/313716/turkey-boosts-military-activity-syrian-border
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/6/18/why-erdogan-is-entering-key-elections-with-a-far-right-ally