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A possible return of Bashar al-Assad in Syria?

A Possible Return Of Bashar Al Assad In Syria

By Ioanna Theou

The al-Jazeera investigation program has found over 74 hours of leaked audio records, involving senior military officers from the ousted Bashar al- Assad regime. The main topic of this discussion was the plans and efforts to destabilize Syria, and a possible scenario of coordination with Israel. But why Israel? The answer is very simple. Israel maintains informal and indirect segments of the Druze community in southern Syria, leveraging religious and social connections. These ties are part of a broader strategy to consolidate Israeli influence, particularly in the Golan heights, aiming at the de facto integration of Syrian territories.

Thus, Israel has an open war with Hamas, but its strategic planning considers a broader regional influence -the so called Greater Israel. The plans for a ‘’Greater Israel’’ could undermine the new Syrian regime and potentially lead to the fragmentation of Syrian territory. In this context Syria could be a new Iraq, where Syria would no longer exist as a unified state but would instead become territorially divided, with control among various actors. Israel through the Druze people, expresses a desire to extend the Israeli territories. Turkey, of course wants to annex a part of Syrian territories due to the Kurdish militia groups in the Turkish-Syrian borders. The Kurdish factor is still alive in northern Syria. ISIS presence has been reduced and their activity is now lower than the period of 2014-2017.

Israel since Bashar al-Assad’s collapse had dramatically intensified its military operations in Syria, conducting hundreds of air, drone, and artillery strikes and therefore expanding its occupation in the Golan Heights and daring to strike even inside Damascus. Another reason for Israel’s actions in Syria against al- Sharaa’s regime is Turkey’s role, as Ankara holds strategic interests in Syrian territory and good relations with the new regime. These interests are shaped both by the Kurdish presence in the Turkish-Syrian borders and by Davutoglu’s doctrine for regional influence.

The leaks focus on Suheil al-Hassan, the former commander of the elite Quwwat al- Nimr (Tiger Forces), and other high ranking officers from Assad’s military structure. These officers are discussing plans to regroup, secure funding, and acquire weapons with the aim of undermining stability in the new regime. In one of the most striking audio clips an unknown voice is being heard telling al Hassan that ‘’the State of Israel, with all its capabilities, will stand with you’’. In response al- Hassan mentions a ‘’Mr Rami’’ who is coordinating with him at a higher level and seems to have ‘’dangerous intelligence information’’.

Israel may be prepared to intervene against the current Syrian leadership… While there have been some mutual interests between Israel and Turkey regarding the weakening or fall of the Assad regime, Israel does not appear willing to accommodate Turkish strategic ambitions in Syria…

Bibliography

M. Mansour, ‘’ Leaked calls reveal plot by al- Assad regime officers to destabilise Syria’’, al- Jazeera, 31/12/2025.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/31/leaked-calls-reveal-plot-by-al-assad-regime-officers-to-destabilise-syria

T.M. Heron, ‘’Who are the Druze and why is Israel attacking Syria?’’, BBC, 17/06/2025.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c70xyv4z74go

E. Matoi, Greater Israel: an Ongoing Expansion Plan for the Middle East and Middle East and North Africa, Middle East Political and Economic Institute, 06/07/2024.

https://mepei.com/greater-israel-an-ongoing-expansion-plan-for-the-middle-east-and-north-africa/

P. Loft, Syria one year after Assad: Forming an interim government, House of Commons Library, UK Parliament, 11/12/2025.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10430/

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